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The Latest Guidance On Picking Key Factors Of Hong Kong
Hong Kong REITs have delivered a strong performance this year but Nomura warns the rally could come to a halt as interest rates rise. Analyst Joyce Kwok expects an inflection point in the second half of the year given the broker's view that U.S. bond yields could head higher. As our US economists now expect 10-year UST yields to expand to 2.60% by end-2017F, we believe outperformance of the HK REIT sector should begin to reverse, and prefer REITs with more visible and higher DPU (distribution per unit) growth as a way to offset bond yield expansion. Kwok has initiated coverage of Hong Kong REITs with a not-too-upbeat view. She has neutral ratings on shopping mall owner Link REIT ( 823.HK ) and and office building owner Champion REIT ( 2778.HK ), and a reduce rating on Fortune REIT ( 778.HK ), which invests in commercial properties and shopping malls: We initiate coverage on Link REIT at Neutral with a TP of HKD64.0, implying a potential total return of 12% (including FY18F yield of 4%). From a yield perspective, pediatric chiropractor we prefer Hang Lung Properties as a better yield play which offers 4% FY17F dividend yield. We initiate coverage on Champion REIT at Neutral with a TP of HKD6.0, implying potential total returns of 16% (including FY18F yield of 4.1%). However, we prefer the other two office landlords (Swire Prop and HKLand) to Champion REIT. We initiate coverage on Fortune REIT at Reduce with a TP of HKD8.1, implying negative total returns of 10% (including FY17F yield of 6.4%). Kwok argues that Hong Kong REITs that divest assets should fare better than those that keep or acquire assets as interest rates rise. In the current situation, we believe the two most important DPU growth drivers to mitigate the risks from rising interest rates are: 1) asset disposal opportunities at favourable yields; 2) active asset enhancement initiatives. Of the HK REITs, Link REIT has been the most active in divesting assets opportunistically, when investor sentiment was strong enough for Link’s assets to be purchased above book value. The other REITs have largely been net buyers rather than sellers.
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